New balances, old problems

While the world is changing and Turkey takes brand new steps in the foreign and domestic policy domains, some old and chronic problems remain unresolved, stimulating a feeling of apathy. One of these chronic issues is the Cyprus problem and the other one is the Armenian issue.

Despite the impression of being international matters, these two are domestic political issues, too. The debate on these subjects is used as leverage to keep the nationalistic, authoritarian and autarkical mechanisms alive, and they have thus become critical for Turkey’s process of democratization. These two issues are also used by international players as brakes for Turkey’s foreign policy. We overlook just how much these two issues play into Turkish politics at home and abroad.

The Cyprus issue has become the most important variable in the Turkey-EU relationship. In fact, if Turkey becomes an EU member, Cyprus will no longer be a problem. The Cyprus issue occupies the foremost position because Turkey’s accession process is blocked. The EU must be clearer about Turkey’s membership, because the present situation can’t go on like this for the next 50 years. Turkey accelerates its regional initiatives and tries to find alternative paths. The membership itself has lost its appeal for ordinary Turks, while the EU spends time considering whether Turkey should become a member, a partner or a simple third country like everybody else. In this context, how do we expect the Cyprus issue to be resolved with a positive outcome for the EU? Anyway, it’s obvious that we are no closer to a resolution on the island. As the Greek side wants to increase pressure on Turkey by implementing a rapprochement with Israel, it’s justified from Turkey’s perspective to doubt its interlocutors’ good faith.

If the process goes on like this, the Cyprus negotiations can go up in smoke and the “Kosovo” model will become a credible way out, which will signify an important breaking point in the long history of the Cyprus problem. Turkey doesn’t take its accession to the EU for granted anyway, so it’s senseless to say that the Cyprus blockage is the only reason for the failure of the process. Through a radical decision, Turkey may put an end to the “Cyprus leverage”: It can suspend the EU process and concentrate its energy on other geographies rather than concentrating on Cyprus.

The Armenian issue has become one of the variables of the Turkey-US relationship. Turkey’s mistakes are the main reason for this odd situation as this issue should be a variable of the Turkey-Armenia relationship. The actual state of affairs is boring enough and the Turkish public does not care as it is used to the reports coming from Washington on the fate of congressional resolutions. There are even people who openly say that they will be relieved if Congress were to adopt an “Armenian resolution,” not because they support its content, but because they’ve had enough with wasting energy on this. Such a resolution would do much harm to relations between Turkey and Armenia, and those who wish to establish a new balance in the southern Caucasus should be worried about this. Similarly, if Turkish-US relations turn sour, how one can expect Ankara to make the US the biggest partner of the “regime” Turkey wants to establish with Iraq, Syria and others? What if it calls on Russia to lend a hand?

In today’s world choices are multiple for each player, and it becomes very hard to count simply losses and gains. It is also more difficult to treat old issues with classic methods to put pressure on other players. Every choice has a cost, but it’s also true that today choices are dictated much more by domestic balances rather than foreign pressures.http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-230642-new-balances-old-problems.html