By Michael J. Koplow and Brent E. Sasley
The Christian
Science Monitor
Washington and Arlington, Texas June 27, 2012 at 9:15 am EDT
The Middle East’s
two strongest economic and military powers, Turkey
and Israel,
are no closer to mending their deteriorating relationship than two years ago,
when Israeli
commandos intercepted an aid flotilla, killing nine Turkish
human rights activists aboard the Mavi Marmara.
But ties between the two need to be urgently reset – and can be – for
the benefit of these former allies and for a region in turmoil.
An urgency to reconcile has been missing up until now, but outside
events are conspiring to make the incentives for rapprochement stronger. With Iran
nuclear talks at a stalemate, Syria
on the brink of civil war and shooting down a Turkish fighter jet, growing
instability in Lebanon,
and lingering uncertainty following the Arab Spring, there has never been a
more important time for these two historically friendly countries to end their
'cold war.'
A reconciliation between Turkey
and Israel
would bring many benefits. Turkey
could return to its role as facilitator in Israeli-Arab peace talks and at the
same time ease the distrust of Ankara in
the US Congress.
The popularity of Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and of his
country in the Arab world could help cushion Israel against the uncertainties of
the Arab Spring.
Regionally, renewed ties would put more pressure on Iran to
negotiate a peaceful resolution to its nuclear standoff. It would ease tensions
related to disputed natural gas claims in the Eastern
Mediterranean that are embroiling Lebanon as well, and foster the
possibility of an international consensus on Syria.
A repaired relationship would also promote American interests in the Middle East by removing the constant clash of its two
close allies. Rapprochment could act as a stabilizing pillar and allow for a
resumption of trilateral intelligence sharing, military exercises, and policy
coordination.
Resetting the Turkish-Israeli relationship has proven difficult, but
it’s not impossible.
True, the refusal of Israel to apologize for the Turkish citizens killed
on the Mavi Marmara, combined with Ankara’s deliberate strategy of drawing
closer to Arab states and Iran at the expense of ties with Israel, have created
an atmosphere of mutual mistrust and anger. But this can be overcome. By
focusing on areas that mutually benefit both sides, the issues dividing the two
countries can slowly be ratcheted down.
In order to achieve a true rapprochement, both sides will need to adjust
their expectations and compromise on their positions. Although Israel has
already expressed regret, it is probably too late for it to go further and make
any meaningful apology to Turkey
for the deaths on the Mavi Marmara.
But some arrangement of compensation would meet one of Ankara’s key demands and could ease some of
the frustration over Israel’s
lack of response. It is also an option Israel seems to have agreed to in
the past; the two sides were reportedly hammering out language on an agreement
last summer when coalition politics in Israel intervened.
There should be no return to an inquiry into the Mavi Marmara events; by
now the discussion is too politicized to reconcile the competing versions of
what took place. Instead, the two should agree to a joint Israeli-Turkish
commission, possibly with American participation, to explore the forms of
compensation and what other, if any, measures might be taken. The commission
should be staffed not by politicians but by legal scholars or practitioners who
are free from the constraints of domestic political considerations.
Trade ties should also be increased as an action separate from the
political sphere (this has, in fact, been gradually happening since the
outbreak of tensions in 2010). More routinized trade missions should be
established, in which select industries take turns traveling to each other’s
countries to meet with counterparts.
New mutually beneficial commercial opportunities should be seized,
including investment in Turkey,
construction in Israel,
and joint development projects. Given its growing private sector, Turkey has a
potentially large pool of skilled labor that can be tied to Israel’s
biomedical and green-energy sectors.
Goodwill gestures and confidence-building measures are also necessary. Given Turkish sensitivities over Cyprus, Israel should
involve Turkey
in some of the economic decision nmaking when dealing with the development of
offshore gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean.
This would ease Turkish suspicions that Israel is out to encircle it. And
cancelled defense contracts between the two countries should also be restored.
That would provide Turkey
with the military technology it has been seeking elsewhere while sending the
message that Israel
does not view Turkey
as a military foe.
In return, Ankara
should stop making public demands on Israel regarding Mavi Marmara and
use less accusatory language when referencing Israeli behavior in the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It should also resume its bid to be a neutral
arbiter and offer to host Israeli and Palestinian negotiators in an effort to
make a positive contribution to the peace process.
Washington
can help this reconciliation process by finding areas of general agreement and
encouraging Israelis and Turks to coordinate on them. This will restore trust
and an effective working relationship between Turkey and Israel.
American interests are served by a stable Middle East,
and having the two strongest countries in the region mend their relationship
can further that goal.
Michael J. Koplow is a Ph.D. candidate in government at Georgetown
University, where he writes on political development and Middle East politics. He blogs at Ottomans and Zionists.
You can follow him on Twitter.
Brent E. Sasley is assistant professor at the University of
Texas at Arlington, where he teaches and writes on Middle East and Israeli politics. He blogs at Mideast Matrix.You
can follow him on Twitter.
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