23/7/18

Πονοκέφαλος για τον Τραμπ οι σχέσεις με την Τουρκία - Πότε τοποθετείται νέος πρέσβης στην Άγκυρα

A new U.S. ambassador to Turkey is unlikely soon.
Edward G. Stafford

The United States is unlikely to name an ambassador to Turkey before the mid-term elections in November, or until after the New Year.
Currently, many embassies are without a U.S. Ambassador . Instead, many are headed by a career diplomat, a Senior Foreign Service Officer (FSO) with many years of service representing the United States in foreign capitals. All these FSOs are competent professionals quite able to manage the embassies to which they are assigned, either as the ambassador or, for those awaiting the arrival of an ambassador/chief of mission (COM), serving as the deputy chief of mission (DCM) and charge d’affaires ad interim (CDA).
This has been the case in Turkey since the departure of Ambassador John Bass in October last year. All that said, U.S. diplomacy functions more smoothly with a Senate-confirmed ambassador serving as chief of mission (COM). There are several reasons in general as well as reasons unique to each ambassadorial posting to explain why the Trump administration has not named and sought Senate confirmation for these diplomatic assignments.

General reasons:

During the U.S. presidential election campaign, more than 100 Republican Party affiliated policy advisors, academics, and think-tank fellows signed off on a public letter decrying the foreign policy positions of Donald Trump as well as proclaiming their refusal to serve in his administration if he were elected. The Trump White House has not forgotten , and many of these foreign affairs experts and practitioners will not be called upon to serve in the State Department or as ambassadors.

Others quietly and privately distanced themselves from the Trump administration, thus reducing the reservoir of talent available for assignments as ambassador or in senior positions in the U.S. foreign affairs agencies, principally the State Department. Also depleting the reservoir of talent were the actions of the incoming administration to induce all those considered close to the Obama administration to resign or retire .   

More importantly, the U.S. Senate, which must give its consent to the nomination of all U.S. ambassadors as well as senior officials in the State Department, has had and will continue to have more important matters to consider. Imagine a multi-lane super highway coming into a single lane toll plaza – only this toll plaza is not staffed 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

With the efforts to reverse the Affordable Care Act, then tax reform, and the hearings on alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian meddling in the U.S. election season, the traffic in the lane for Senate confirmation of ambassadorial appointments has been reduced almost to a standstill. Not so for federal court appointments.

While appointment and confirmation of non-career ambassadors has been slowed, the Trump administration, working closely with Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell , has moved forward with its appointments to the U.S. District, Circuit, and Supreme courts.

Trump and his advisors know, as McConnell does, that lifetime appointments to the federal bench have the potential to shift U.S. jurisprudence away from progressive and towards conservative legal theory for decades to come. And though Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer will use all the delaying tactics available to him , McConnell and the Republicans in control of the Senate will not allow themselves to be distracted from shifting the courts to the right.

Thus, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and full Senate, often by unanimous consent, will move forward confirmations of a routine nature, that is, almost all appointments of career diplomats as ambassadors, and most non-controversial appointments of non-career ambassadors. But, expect McConnell to advise the White House not to send nominations that would require the attention of Senators who must remain focused on getting those court nominees confirmed, to include a second Trump nominee to the Supreme Court.

Thus, it is most likely that high profile postings or controversial nominees, which would attract the attention of the media and particular senators thus leading to drawn-out hearings at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and possibly even contentious floor debate, will continue to be put off.

Specific reasons:

The appointment of anyone, to include a career FSO, as U.S. ambassador to Turkey would almost certainly lead to extensive hearings by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and long debate about relations with Turkey given the existing tension over the S-400 air defence system, the imprisonment of Pastor Andrew Brunson, extradition of Fethullah Gülen, NATO commitments, Islamic State, Syria, the Kurds, human rights, press freedom, and the sale F-35 advanced fighter jets. 

For the time being, U.S.-Turkish relations will be in the hands of the assistant secretary for Europe, A. Wess Mitchell, and career staff in Washington and Turkey. These staff members will communicate and implement the policies as formulated by Mitchell and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Occasional visits by senior State Department or other U.S. officials will also take place. All of this is not as useful as the appointment of a distinguished individual as Ambassador. On June 29, a member of the State Department’s policy planning staff said at a Washington Institute public event that Ambassador David Satterfield would be “going out to Ankara this summer”. Satterfield’s history with the U.S. Senate regarding Iraq during the Bush years makes it unlikely the Trump administration would send his name to the Senate at this time, for it is certain that some senators would look upon a Satterfield nomination as a chance to re-hash the Iraq policy of 10 years ago.

More likely for Satterfield would be a late 2018 appointment as ambassador during a Senate recess or an appointment as a special envoy not needing Senate confirmation. Many recess appointments might result if the Democrats win control of the Senate at November’s mid-term election, forcing Trump to work with McConnell on such appointments unlike what happened in August 2017 when the Senate blocked Trump from making recess appointments.    

In sum, until the Senate has made further progress on court appointees and U.S.-Turkey relations improve through the work of the bilateral working groups , or until there is a larger Republican caucus in the Senate that could more easily push forward nominations, expect no action on a nomination of the next U.S. ambassador to Turkey.
https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-usa/new-us-ambassador-turkey-unlikely-soon

1 σχόλιο:

  1. Mr. President
    I heard you have huge business in turkey, buildings and such .
    I sincerely hope that won't be distract you from ultimately realizing you're dealing with a treacherous barbaric folk that would love to have your head in a basket if they could. proceed with extreme caution and never trust the genocide type of a coward.

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