An operation to Idlib is in pipeline: facts and figures of rebels in Idlib
Τhe Syrian government is currently moving ammunition and war equipment to the border of the province of Idlib, a gathering place for the remaining rebel forces which lost their strongholds in various parts of Syria. According to one source in the Syrian military, a major operation to Idlib is in the pipeline.
A possibility of an operation to Idlib by Russia backed Syrian government forces increased with successive achievements in Daraa and Quneitra.
However, the indications have made Turkey nervous. Turkey carried out Operation Olive Branch against Kurdish YPG controlled Afrin and Euphrates Shield Operation in al-Bab and Jarablus with allied Free Syrian Army (FSA) factions. Erdogan, a close ally of many Islamists groups located in Idlib through his relationship with FSA, warned Putin that such an operation will be the end of the Astana process that Iran, Turkey and Russia started to bring an internationally recognised end of the Syrian Civil War through diplomatic agreements between fighting factions.
However, the exact situation in Idlib is unknown to many people. So, what is actually important about Idlib?
A large number of armed factions stationed in Idlib, especially after the evacuation process that took place in the Syrian areas through agreements between the Russian and Turkish parties. A large number of armed factions stationed in Idlib, especially after the evacuation process that took place in the Syrian areas through agreements between the Russian and Turkish parties. Facts and figures according to the latest statistics of the factions located in Idlib are as follows:
Ahrar al-Sham Movement: The number of fighters is around 15,000, mostly Syrians. They have several political and media offices in Idlib.
"Ahrar al-Sham" Movement is one of the opposition factions that emerged during the Syrian revolution by the union of four Islamic factions, Kataib Ahrar al-Sham, the Islamic Fajr Movement, Islamic al-Talia Jemae and Kataib al-Iman al-Muqatila.
"Faileq al-Sham": 8,000 fighters with a political media office, partially affiliated with the Free Army factions and is an alliance of Islamist opposition groups formed to strengthen the power of Islamists in the armed conflict in Syria. The coalition was formed from 19 different groups, some of which had previously belonged to the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood and Hiet Dere al-Thewra.
Jaish al-Mujahideen: The approximate number of this faction 1,000 fighters and has a media office only.
Fursan al-Haq: An organisation that is formed in 2012 and is estimated to have about 2,000 fighters, a faction of the "Free Army", located in Kafr Nab, a town administratively belonging to Idlib Governorate.
Seqoor al-Sham: With 6,000 fighters, this faction is fighting alongside the Free Syrian Army.
Faction of Esteqem Kema Omert: The number of fighters in this faction is 2,000 fighters, located in the countryside of Aleppo, west and the countryside Idlib.
Fateh al-Sham organisation: A new naming of the Jabhat al-Nasra, with a total of 6,000 fighters, some of whom are foreigners of Western and Arab nationalities.
Liwa al-Haq: A faction of about 2,000 fighters based in Saraqib, a city again administratively belonging to the Idlib Governorate, close to the Fateh al-Sham organisation.
Jund al-Aqsa: A faction includes 1,000 fighters, who recently joined Fatah al-Sham organisation and is close to Islamic State.
The Islamic Council of Syria: The Islamic Council includes about 40 bodies and an Islamic association, headed by Osama Rifai.
Despite the truce imposed at 4 May 2017, which many described as "a calm ahead of the storm, the recent expectations began to revolve around the upcoming events that will take place within areas in the north of Syria, which is limited within the province of Idlib in addition to the countryside of Aleppo and the western parts of the northern Aleppo countryside .
The fate of Idlib has become the centre of conflicts in the north of Syria, however, after the completion of the evacuation of the armed factions in the province of Daraa, there are undeniable indications that the Syrian government forces will head to the last largest stronghold in Syria. If Turkey and Russia would not reach another agreement the region may witness major military operations leading to the end of Russian-Turkish relations. Since the only way left for Turkey to incorporate itself to Syria's future plans is through the representation of Islamist groups present in Idlib in Astana talks.
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