Gabi Ashkenaz sits before testifying at a state-appointed inquiry in Jerusalem, Aug. 11, 2010. (photo by REUTERS/Gali Tibbon) |
Arad Nir ALMONITOR
The basic distrust that Israel’s diplomatic and security leadership
feels toward Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was further
exacerbated May 26 when a court in Istanbul issued international arrest warrants
against senior officers who served as members of the Israeli army's
General Staff when Israel took control of the Mavi Marmara flotilla.
Israeli experts in international law downplayed the
significance of this legal procedure; the political leadership called
it “a mere political move, one which it is doubtful any respectable
country will abide by.”
Turkish diplomatic sources explained that this is part of a
long legal process, which will stop the moment Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu approves the reconciliation agreement waiting on his desk.
Besides the reparations agreement and the approval of facilitating
Turkish civilian aid to the people of Gaza, the agreement also includes a
mechanism to rescind all legal claims against the IDF officers and the
State of Israel. Jerusalem is now waiting to see how things develop, but
sources nevertheless stress that there is room for a significant
Turkish gesture to prove that the Turkish government is committed to
ending the crisis.
Gabby Levy, Israel’s last ambassador to Ankara, was
expelled from Turkey following the Mavi Marmara incident. In a
conversation with Al-Monitor, he shares his assessment that the Turkish
government will ignore the decree issued by the court in Istanbul, and
possibly even take steps to ensure that it is not implemented. This
would be part of a process of rebuilding trust, which Ankara now is hard
at work to promote while it waits for a dawdling Netanyahu to approve the normalization agreement between the two countries.
The feeling that a historic reconciliation between Israel
and Turkey is right around the corner has even reached the corridors of
the Knesset in Jerusalem. Knesset member Nitzan Horowitz
(Meretz), who heads the Knesset lobby to promote regional cooperation,
called for a rare and special meeting in the Knesset titled “Israel and
Turkey: Heading toward a New Chapter in Their Relationship” together
with Mitvim think tank. The session took place May 20. The guest of
honor: Yasar Yakis, one of the founders of Erdogan’s AKP (Justice and
Development Party) and foreign minister of the first government formed
by the Islamist party in 2002.
The last time that an official Turkish representative paid a
visit to the Knesset was well before the Mavi Marmara incident, in
January 2010. Then Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon summoned Turkish
ambassador Ahmet Oguz Cellikol to his Knesset office to chastise him
for the anti-Israel discourse in Turkey, in what came to be known as the
“Low Chair Incident.”
The fact that no official Turkish representative has visited the
Israeli legislature for such a long time eclipsed the fact that
Yakis now has no official position or status in Turkey. He has spent the
past few years heading a research institute (STRATIM) that supports the normalization of relations between Israel and Turkey.
On the other hand, the fact that he has no official
commitments allowed him a free hand to analyze Erdogan's personality and
the impact that this has on any disputes between the two countries.
Yakis did not spare Israel or Turkey from criticism over their conduct,
which led to the killings on the Mavi Marmara. In attempting to explain
Erdogan’s behavior, he relied on the saying by French philosopher Blaise
Pascal, “The heart has reasons that reason cannot know.”
According to Yakis, Erdogan acts impulsively.
He is driven by his gut, without any complex strategic thinking behind
him. This kind of analysis will not make matters easy for Netanyahu, who
is already worried about signing a reconciliation agreement with Turkey
without first receiving guarantees that Erdogan will not go back to
slamming Israel. In response to my question whether Netanyahu’s demands
can really be applicable, the guest responded that it is the kind of
thing that cannot be fixed by an agreement. Rather, it requires
reciprocal trust, which must be built up over time. At the same time, he
added that Erdogan’s political power among the Turkish public enables
him to make any move and pass any decision he wants without first having
to put together some coalition or other. Since Turkey is now interested
in reconciliation with Israel, once normalization is implemented
Erdogan will be able to meet all of his obligations and commitments.
While the discussion was taking place in the Knesset,
Erdogan continued his “charm attack” on Israel. In a speech delivered to
the members of his party in the parliament in Ankara, he thanked Israel
for the understanding and sympathy it expressed following the mining
disaster in Soma. He was referring to the fact that the Israeli Embassy
chose to cancel a reception scheduled to take place in Istanbul to
celebrate Israel’s Independence Day. Even if the comments came straight
from Erdogan’s heart, there can be no doubt that they contained a
calculated message, intended to advance a new dialogue with Israel.
Israeli officials who follow the contacts between the two countries from
up close hoped that this gesture would be enough to diminish the
impression left by Erdogan's outburst in the mining town. The prime
minister seemingly used a despicable anti-Semitic slur against one of
the people demonstrating against him, following which the Turkish media
began to insinuate about “an Israeli and Jewish conspiracy” related to the Soma mining disaster.
Rasim Ozan Kutahyali commented here [on
May 16] on the role that Israeli natural gas in the Mediterranean
Leviathan gas field is having in causing Erdogan’s dramatic turnaround.
Israeli and Turkish business leaders travel back and forth
between Tel Aviv and Istanbul and between Ankara and Jerusalem, hoping
to participate in the project to lay an underwater gas pipeline that
would carry unprocessed natural gas from the Leviathan gas field to the
Turkish coast. Experts have long viewed this as the proper, most
profitable and most appropriate way to exploit the gas resource. Ever
since the Australian firm Woodside scrapped
its plans to purchase some of the gas and transport it to the east,
transporting the gas to Turkey has become the only option that is
economically sound.
However, to move ahead with this deal, valued at more than
$2 billion, it will first be necessary to reach a diplomatic arrangement
between the two countries. A senior diplomatic and security figure in
Israel recently said lately that it would be impossible for Israel to
allow the transfer of gas to Turkey. “Erdogan can’t be trusted,” he
said. “It will be impossible for us to give him the ability to control
the transfer of Israeli gas.”
The importance of rebuilding trust between the two sides in
order to advance the gas route was also raised in the discussion that
took place in the Knesset. The former Turkish foreign minister said,
“Energy needs politics.” He emphasized that in order to fund the energy
project, mutual trust between the political partners is essential. He
went on to say that the Turkish partner is already convinced of the
political need to move the deal ahead. All that is left to do is to
convince Israel.
The discussion took place in the conference room used by
the Knesset’s Immigration and Absorption Committee. The hall was
filled to capacity with everyone from active and retired diplomats,
researchers and businessmen operating in Israel and Turkey. Among the
prominent Knesset members who attended was Knesset member Reuven Rivlin
(Likud), who is currently running for president, but because of past
grudges is not receiving the support
of the head of his party, Netanyahu. Rivlin expressed confidence that
the relationship between Israel and Turkey can overcome past
differences, and surprised everyone when he called on Turkey to help
bridge the differences in the century-old conflict between Israel and
the Palestinians, a task we have failed at, he stressed.
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