Von Matthias Gebauer
Assad-Anhänger in Aleppo (Archivbild): Aufständische reiben sich auf |
Berlin - Der Auslandsgeheimdienst BND hat sein Lagebild des Bürgerkriegs in Syrien grundlegend revidiert. Nach Informationen von SPIEGEL ONLINE unterrichtete der Chef des Geheimdienstes ausgewählte Sicherheitspolitiker in geheimer Sitzung, dass das Militär von Machthaber Baschar al-Assad derzeit so stabil wie lange nicht mehr agieren könne. Selbst erfolgreiche Offensiven der Assad-Truppen gegen die Einheiten der Rebellen seien jederzeit möglich, so BND-Chef Gerhard Schindler.
Die neue Lageeinschätzung des BND ist eine bemerkenswerte Kehrtwende: Noch im Spätsommer 2012 hatte Schindler in Unterrichtungen für Regierungsmitglieder und Abgeordnete, aber auch in Interviews das Ende Assads in den ersten Monaten des Jahres 2013 vorausgesagt. Damals argumentierte der BND mit der prekären Versorgungslage des Assad-Militärs, zudem registriere man eine sehr hohe Zahl an desertierten Soldaten bis hoch in die Offiziersränge. Folglich prophezeite der BND die "Endphase des Regimes".
Heute stellt sich die Lage aus Sicht des Bundesnachrichtendienstes anders dar. Der BND-Chef erläuterte anhand von Grafiken und Karten, dass die Truppen von Assad derzeit wieder über voll funktionsfähige Nachschubwege für Waffen verfügten. Auch die zeitweise schwierige Versorgung mit Sprit für Panzer und die Luftwaffe des Regimes laufe wieder. So könne die Assad-Armee spontane Angriffe der Rebellen abwehren und sogar verlorenen Boden zurückgewinnen. Zwar habe Assad kaum Chancen, die Aufständischen zu besiegen, er könne sie aber in Schach halten, so der BND.
BND sieht Lage der Rebellen düster
Die Aussagen des Geheimdienstchefs decken sich mit den wenigen Berichten aus Syrien:
- Dem syrischen Regime ist es demnach in den vergangenen Wochen gelungen, das Kerngebiet seiner Macht - die Region von Damaskus über Homs an die Küste - wieder zu sichern.
- Ebenso gelang es den Assad-Truppen, die Rebellen aus mehreren Vororten von Damaskus zu drängen und ihnen die Versorgungsroute nach Süden abzuschneiden.
- Aktuell schneidet das Regime den Aufständischen auch die Versorgungsrouten nach Westen ab.
Westerwelle und Amtskollege Kerry arbeiten an Friedenskonferenz
Die Prognosen für das Assad-Regime sieht der BND deswegen auf einmal ziemlich positiv. Setze sich der Konflikt wie in den vergangenen Wochen fort, so Schindler, könnten die von der libanesischen Hisbollah-Miliz unterstützten Truppen bis Ende 2013 den gesamten Süden des Landes zurückerobern. Als letztes Rückzugsgebiet der Aufständischen bliebe nur der Norden. Dort hätten kurdische Rebellen ihre Gebiete fest in der Hand.
Bei einem Treffen der "Freunde Syriens" will Westerwelle unter anderem mit US-Außenminister John Kerry in der jordanischen Hauptstadt Amman sprechen. Schon am Wochenende dämpfte Westerwelle bei einem Besuch Hoffnungen für einen schnellen Erfolg. Bisher sei noch nicht mal klar, ob das Assad-Regime überhaupt zu Gesprächen bereit sei.
Syrian Rebels in Trouble: German Intelligence Sees Assad Regaining Hold
By Matthias Gebauer
Troops loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad in Aleppo (archive image from February 2012). |
Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), has fundamentally changed its view of the ongoing civil war in Syria.
SPIEGEL ONLINE has learned that the BND now believes the Syrian
military of autocrat Bashar Assad is more stable than it has been in a
long time and is capable of undertaking successful operations against
rebel units at will. BND head Gerhard Schindler informed select
politicians of the agency's new assessment in a secret meeting.
It is a notable about-face. As recently as last summer, Schindler
reported to government officials and parliamentarians that he felt the
Assad regime would collapse early in 2013. He repeated the view in
interviews with the media.
At the time, the BND pointed to the Syrian military's precarious
supply situation and large numbers of desertions that included members
of the officer core. German intelligence spoke of the "end phase of the
regime."
Since then, however, the situation has changed dramatically, the BND believes. Schindler used graphics and maps to demonstrate that Assad's troops once again possess effective supply lines to ensure sufficient quantities of weapons and other materiel. Fuel supplies for tanks and military aircraft, which had proved troublesome, are once again available, Schindler reported. The new situation allows Assad's troops to combat spontaneous rebel attacks and even retake positions that were previously lost. The BND does not believe that Assad's military is strong enough to defeat the rebels, but it can do enough to improve its position in the current stalemate.
Severing Rebel Supply Lines
The assessment appears to be consistent with recent reports from Syria, where government troops have been able to regain the upper hand in the region stretching from Damascus to Homs, including coastal areas near Homs. Furthermore, fighters loyal to Assad have expelled rebel fighters from several districts on the edge of Damascus and cut off their supply lines to the south. Currently, the regime is in the process of severing rebel supply lines to the west.
Meanwhile, the BND believes that rebel forces, which include several groups of Islamist fighters with ties to al-Qaida, are facing extreme difficulties. Schindler reported that different rebel groups are fighting with each other to attain supremacy in individual regions. Furthermore, regime troops have managed to cut supply lines for weapons and evacuation routes for wounded fighters. Each new battle weakens the militias further, the BND chief said.
Should the conflict continue as it has in recent weeks, says Schindler, government troops could retake the entire southern half of the country by the end of 2013. That would leave only the north for insurgent fighters, where Kurdish rebels have tighten control over their areas.
Lowering Expectations
Schindler's report on the state of the rebel groups allows little room
for hope that serious talks between the insurgents and the Assad regime
will take place soon. The BND says there is no functional chain of
command between opposition leaders abroad and the militias inside of
Syria. The fighters on the ground simply don't recognize the political
leadership, says the BND.
The United Nations is currently doing all it can to encourage both
sides to engage in peace talks in Geneva, though no date has been set. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle is once again travelling to the Middle East on Wednesday to plan for such negotiations.
At a meeting of the "Friends of Syria" in the Jordanian capital of Amman, Westerwelle is set to meet with US Secretary of State John Kerry among others. But over the weekend, he sought to lower expectations, saying that it isn't clear yet whether the Assad regime is even prepared to engage in talks.
SPIEGELONLINE INTERNATIONAL
Since then, however, the situation has changed dramatically, the BND believes. Schindler used graphics and maps to demonstrate that Assad's troops once again possess effective supply lines to ensure sufficient quantities of weapons and other materiel. Fuel supplies for tanks and military aircraft, which had proved troublesome, are once again available, Schindler reported. The new situation allows Assad's troops to combat spontaneous rebel attacks and even retake positions that were previously lost. The BND does not believe that Assad's military is strong enough to defeat the rebels, but it can do enough to improve its position in the current stalemate.
Severing Rebel Supply Lines
The assessment appears to be consistent with recent reports from Syria, where government troops have been able to regain the upper hand in the region stretching from Damascus to Homs, including coastal areas near Homs. Furthermore, fighters loyal to Assad have expelled rebel fighters from several districts on the edge of Damascus and cut off their supply lines to the south. Currently, the regime is in the process of severing rebel supply lines to the west.
Meanwhile, the BND believes that rebel forces, which include several groups of Islamist fighters with ties to al-Qaida, are facing extreme difficulties. Schindler reported that different rebel groups are fighting with each other to attain supremacy in individual regions. Furthermore, regime troops have managed to cut supply lines for weapons and evacuation routes for wounded fighters. Each new battle weakens the militias further, the BND chief said.
Should the conflict continue as it has in recent weeks, says Schindler, government troops could retake the entire southern half of the country by the end of 2013. That would leave only the north for insurgent fighters, where Kurdish rebels have tighten control over their areas.
Lowering Expectations
At a meeting of the "Friends of Syria" in the Jordanian capital of Amman, Westerwelle is set to meet with US Secretary of State John Kerry among others. But over the weekend, he sought to lower expectations, saying that it isn't clear yet whether the Assad regime is even prepared to engage in talks.
SPIEGELONLINE INTERNATIONAL
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