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The Moon of Alabama (USA)
On Thursday I judged that the U.S. supported al-Qaeda attack in southwest Aleppo was failing.The Moon of Alabama (USA)
Despite the failure of their main thrust, al-Qaeda and its allies launched a third phase attack towards Ramouseh district a few hundred meters further north. A tactical mistake as the attackers failed to build a decisive Schwerpunkt. ... Local fighting still continues on the front lines but the government positions seem secured and the attacking force is slowly getting ground down.
That judgement was premature.
The Jihadis retreated after their first three attacks but renewed their efforts with fresh troops on the next day. This time they concentrated on one focal point. Another frontal assault throughout Friday failed, but a fifth major strike followed in the darkness of Friday night. A total of five vehicle borne suicide bombs broke the defense line of the Syrian government forces and Jihadi forces stormed into the wide area of the Artillery Academy. The compound is a hard to observe mixture of small open fields, garages, office and quarter buildings. The sparsely manned defense lines were overwhelmed or circumvented. By Saturday night most of the academy was in the hand of the Jihadis. A small corridor to the Jihadi held east-Aleppo was opened but is not secured.
The Syrian government forces are bringing up reserves and additional forces. A counterattack is likely to follow soon. The battle for Aleppo is now the strategic Schwerpunkt, the focal point of the fight for north-Syria if not of the whole war.
According to earlier reports by the Guardian journalist Chulov, Vice News and Dutch TV, east-Aleppo is essentially empty. The population has long fled to government held areas. "Spookstad", ghost-town, is the title of the Dutch TV documentary from there. "Western" media now laud the Islamists for lifting the siege the Syrian government held over the area. But the new Jihaid corridor in south-west Aleppo is cutting off 1.5 million people in government held west-Aleppo. Now these are under siege with the besieging forces having promised to slaughter many of them. This is somewhat recurrence of the situation in 2013 when west-Aleppo, to little attention of the media, was also cut off from all resupplies by "moderate rebel" forces.
The "western" think-tank and media fanboys of al-Qaeda are celebrating the breaking the siege of east-Aleppo while a much bigger siege is created against a much larger population. Their cheer-leading for al-Qaeda is literarely indistinguishable from al-Qaeda's own propaganda.
The Russian air force was heavily engaged, but not very visible in the defense of the Artillery Academy. Its main focus are the supply lines of the Jihadists. But efforts in the logistic depth of the theater always take some time to show significant effects on the front lines. What was regrettably missing was direct helicopter support for the defenders. Russia has a number of excellent front line helicopters in Syria. But there was arguably reason not to use them. Last Monday a Russian helicopter was shot down some 40 kilometers south of Aleppo and all crew and passengers were killed. The Russians believe that the helicopter was taken down my a man portable air defense missile (MANPAD) delivered to Jihadis either by or with the knowledge of the U.S. They fear that the attackers of Aleppo have a significant number of these weapons.
The breaking of a corridor towards east-Aleppo was announced as only the first part of a plan to conquer and occupy all of Aleppo. More than 5,000 attackers took part in the first phase. There are rumors - unconfirmed - that an additional 10,000 attackers have been activated and are on the march towards the city.
The whole attack on Aleppo was planned since at least April. U.S. Secretary of State Kerry prevented Russian reactions against the preparations and build up by holding out a possible cessation of hostilities and a political solution of the conflict. At the same time the U.S. and its allies delivered new weapons and equipment to al-Qaeda in Syria and its aligned forces. Videos from the Jihadi front lines show every fighter in well kept uniforms and armored vests with plenty of weapons and ammunition available.
The current attack on Aleppo is only one part of a larger U.S. plan to bring Syria (as well as Russia and Iran) to its knees. We do not yet know all the plan's phases, parameters and aims. We also do not know the responses the other side has prepared to counter them. All observers (including me) should keep that in mind when judging the day-to-day changes of the situation.
Posted by b on August 7, 2016 at 03:58 AM | Permalink
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/08/aleppo-again-turns-into-the-focal-point-of-the-war-on-syria.html#more
Comments
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/08/aleppo-again-turns-into-the-focal-point-of-the-war-on-syria.html#more
Comments
The war criminal western media can't help but propagandise their own
crimes. And a day or two after they were "shocked" ( shocked that it
was actually revealed ) of their governments proxies terrorists.
It's that's exactly when Putin claimed his engagement of ( Wests ) terrorist proxies would take four months, was ludicrous. The fanbots that chanted that idiocy never gave amounts on the ground troops would be supplied/ available enable a four month victory. Let alone the amount of AIR to ground engagement. That's why it was stupid to say from day one, and even worse for Putin to withdraw some air support because of his PR bullshit 4 month sham.Yes, I cannot get over it. And never will. Because it's a lesson never to be forgotten.
And to actually invite the evil US Empire into Syria is one of the stupidest negligent things I've seen when "resisting" the evil US Empire.
I'm not gonna make any set predictions overall, but it's very clear now to me that if a wasn't for Russian military intervention just think about how fucked Syria would be now.
Oh I forgot Hillary might be still coming.
Could someone please tell me is there more Russian airport at its maximum from about 4 months ago then there is now ?
It's that's exactly when Putin claimed his engagement of ( Wests ) terrorist proxies would take four months, was ludicrous. The fanbots that chanted that idiocy never gave amounts on the ground troops would be supplied/ available enable a four month victory. Let alone the amount of AIR to ground engagement. That's why it was stupid to say from day one, and even worse for Putin to withdraw some air support because of his PR bullshit 4 month sham.Yes, I cannot get over it. And never will. Because it's a lesson never to be forgotten.
And to actually invite the evil US Empire into Syria is one of the stupidest negligent things I've seen when "resisting" the evil US Empire.
I'm not gonna make any set predictions overall, but it's very clear now to me that if a wasn't for Russian military intervention just think about how fucked Syria would be now.
Oh I forgot Hillary might be still coming.
Could someone please tell me is there more Russian airport at its maximum from about 4 months ago then there is now ?
Posted by: tom | Aug 7, 2016 4:53:05 AM | 2
This is the August assault - so timed because of alittle thing called
the Olympics. It's the Olympic offensive and it must be dealt with
offensively and decisively.
Frankly, the SAA, Iran, Hezbollah & Russia must have fully expected this given the statements of Kerry over previous months and also the fact something - somewhere - was certain to happen during the Olympics - just look at 2014 & 2008 for examples!
Frankly, the SAA, Iran, Hezbollah & Russia must have fully expected this given the statements of Kerry over previous months and also the fact something - somewhere - was certain to happen during the Olympics - just look at 2014 & 2008 for examples!
Military Success in Syria Gives Putin Upper Hand in U.S. Proxy War
The New York Times
By MARK MAZZETTI, ANNE BARNARD and ERIC SCHMITT
But then the Russians arrived, bludgeoning C.I.A.-backed rebel forces with an air campaign that has sent them into retreat. And now rebel commanders, clinging to besieged neighborhoods in the divided city of Aleppo, say their shipments of C.I.A.-provided antitank missiles are drying up.
~~~
For the first time since Afghanistan in the 1980s, the Russian military for the past year has been in direct combat with rebel forces trained and supplied by the C.I.A. The American-supplied Afghan fighters prevailed during that Cold War conflict. But this time the outcome — thus far — has been different.
“Russia has won the proxy war, at least for now,” said Michael Kofman, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington.
Russia’s battlefield successes in Syria have given Moscow, isolated by the West after its annexation of Crimea and other incursions into Ukraine, new leverage in decisions about the future of the Middle East.
The New York Times
By MARK MAZZETTI, ANNE BARNARD and ERIC SCHMITT
But then the Russians arrived, bludgeoning C.I.A.-backed rebel forces with an air campaign that has sent them into retreat. And now rebel commanders, clinging to besieged neighborhoods in the divided city of Aleppo, say their shipments of C.I.A.-provided antitank missiles are drying up.
~~~
For the first time since Afghanistan in the 1980s, the Russian military for the past year has been in direct combat with rebel forces trained and supplied by the C.I.A. The American-supplied Afghan fighters prevailed during that Cold War conflict. But this time the outcome — thus far — has been different.
“Russia has won the proxy war, at least for now,” said Michael Kofman, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington.
Russia’s battlefield successes in Syria have given Moscow, isolated by the West after its annexation of Crimea and other incursions into Ukraine, new leverage in decisions about the future of the Middle East.
Posted by: okie farmer | Aug 7, 2016 5:09:12 AM | 4
Posted by: okie farmer | Aug 7, 2016 5:09:12 AM | 4
The map is interesting in that article for what the NYT/the US consider "CIA supported rebel" area and enemy/ISIS area.
The whole concept of "CIA supported" versus "US supported" is mind-boggling.
The map is interesting in that article for what the NYT/the US consider "CIA supported rebel" area and enemy/ISIS area.
The whole concept of "CIA supported" versus "US supported" is mind-boggling.
Posted by: somebody | Aug 7, 2016 5:16:14 AM | 5
from the link above: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/07/world/middleeast/military-syria-putin-us-proxy-war.html
Some of the rebel groups boasted at the time that powerful TOW antitank missiles provided by American and Saudi intelligence operatives were a key to their success. For several years, the C.I.A. has joined with the spy services of several Arab nations to arm and train the rebels at bases in Jordan and Qatar, with the Saudis bankrolling much of the operation.
A C.I.A. spokesman declined to comment about any American assistance to Syrian rebels.
But Lt. Col. Fares al-Bayyoush, a former aviation engineer who heads the rebel group Fursan al-Haq, said during an interview in May 2015 that his group would receive new shipments of the antitank weapons as soon as the missiles were used.
“We ask for ammunition and missiles, and we get more than we ask for,” he said.
Yet the advance also created problems for the fractious assortment of rebel groups, as it allowed the Nusra Front to gain control over more areas of northern Syria. The Obama administration has officially forbidden any Nusra fighters to receive weapons or training. But the group has at times shown greater prowess against the Syrian government forces than the C.I.A.’s proxies.
Moreover, they have shown that they can and will destroy or sideline C.I.A.-backed rebels who do not agree to battlefield alliances. Moscow cited the battlefield successes of the Nusra Front to justify its military incursion into Syria as a campaign to fight terrorism — even if its primary goal was to shore up Mr. Assad’s military against all insurgent groups, including the C.I.A.-backed rebels.
The Russians began a rapid military buildup in September, and launched an air campaign that targeted the Syrian rebel groups that posed the most direct threat to Mr. Assad’s government, including some of the C.I.A.-trained groups. By mid-October, Russia had escalated its airstrikes to nearly 90 on some days.
Some of the rebel groups boasted at the time that powerful TOW antitank missiles provided by American and Saudi intelligence operatives were a key to their success. For several years, the C.I.A. has joined with the spy services of several Arab nations to arm and train the rebels at bases in Jordan and Qatar, with the Saudis bankrolling much of the operation.
A C.I.A. spokesman declined to comment about any American assistance to Syrian rebels.
But Lt. Col. Fares al-Bayyoush, a former aviation engineer who heads the rebel group Fursan al-Haq, said during an interview in May 2015 that his group would receive new shipments of the antitank weapons as soon as the missiles were used.
“We ask for ammunition and missiles, and we get more than we ask for,” he said.
Yet the advance also created problems for the fractious assortment of rebel groups, as it allowed the Nusra Front to gain control over more areas of northern Syria. The Obama administration has officially forbidden any Nusra fighters to receive weapons or training. But the group has at times shown greater prowess against the Syrian government forces than the C.I.A.’s proxies.
Moreover, they have shown that they can and will destroy or sideline C.I.A.-backed rebels who do not agree to battlefield alliances. Moscow cited the battlefield successes of the Nusra Front to justify its military incursion into Syria as a campaign to fight terrorism — even if its primary goal was to shore up Mr. Assad’s military against all insurgent groups, including the C.I.A.-backed rebels.
The Russians began a rapid military buildup in September, and launched an air campaign that targeted the Syrian rebel groups that posed the most direct threat to Mr. Assad’s government, including some of the C.I.A.-trained groups. By mid-October, Russia had escalated its airstrikes to nearly 90 on some days.
Posted by: okie farmer | Aug 7, 2016 5:21:41 AM | 6
There will be civilians left in East Aleppo - some people just do not have what it takes to flee - and some are loath to leave helpless relatives behind. And there are reports that Jihadis forced people to stay.
From my armchair, the aim of Jihadis to "break the siege" would be to get out of Aleppo, not in. As of now, Russia bombs the "freed corridor".