The Balkan economies and mainly the Greek economy are negatively influenced
by the European debt crisis during the last years. The Turkish economy
dominates in the Balkans and can be considered as an emerging one, belonging to
the G-20 group (16th largest economy).
The economic governance of T. Erdogan is successful until now. The
macroeconomic indexes improved significantly and the Turkish economy up to 2011
had robust growth rates surpassing even 10%. In 2011 it was the 2nd more
developed economy worldwide after China.
One critical question concerns the continuity of the Turkish economic
"miracle". I expect that Turkey will slow its economic performance in
2012, because inflation is rising and its economy is overheated. The current
account deficit is increasing and the cost of living is rising especially in
financial centers like Istanbul and Ankara. The successor of T. Erdogan will
most probably adopt the effective policies implemented in the last 10 years (A.K.P.
is the ruling party from 2002). During this period Turkey "built" its
economy on strong "foundations", enhancing its fundamentals.
The essential strategic planning and decision making processes, with
political insight and determination, led to the disengagement from the
International Monetary Fund in 2008, since Turkey increased its production
capacity, utilizing its domestic capabilities, competitive and comparative
advantages and depreciating the Turkish lira when necessary. In my opinion, in the
following years the Turkish cabinet will stress on the extroversion of the Turkish
companies, because exporting activity is a solution to the liquidity and
profitability difficulties that companies deal with in an economic turbulent
environment. Simultaneously, Turkish officials will tend to promote exporting
motives and provide tax and investment incentives in order to attract more foreign
direct investments. The real estate sector will also develop, as Istanbul is
regarded one of the top metropolitan cities in the field of acquisitions and
returns are quick.
I believe that the tourism sector will be one of the priorities of the next
Turkish Prime Minister. The level of tourism services is improving while prices
are competitive and in this way net tourism revenues exceeded USD 20 billion in
2010. Turkey benefits from the diminishing arrivals of tourists in Greece, due
to its severe economic crisis and the frequent strikes. Tourists substitute the
offered Greek tourist product with the Turkish one and they often select Turkey
as holidays’ destination.
Undoubtedly, the Turkish authorities invest extensively on the energy
sector, which plays a predominant role nowadays. The energy policy of Turkey is
strategically structured on principles and it is one aspect of the economic diplomacy
of Turkey, which is affected by the theory of “strategic depth” developed by
the Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. New business collaborations and
mutual economic interstate agreements with countries such as U.S.A., Russia,
Egypt, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, China, Austria even Greece and Israel (although
political relations are almost ruined) are included in the strategic objectives
of the Turkish economic policy in the next years, concerning energy projects of
high importance, such as oil and gas exploitation and the construction of oil
and gas pipelines for the transportation of energy resources to Europe.
Overall, the future prospects of the thriving Turkish economy seem to be positive,
so Turkish and foreign companies enjoy plenty of opportunities to start or
expand their operations in Turkey. I believe that the economic agenda of the
successor of T. Erdogan will more or less focus on similar strategic goals,
reinforcing the peripheral and international role of the Turkish economy.
Moreover, this constitutes the Turkish officials’ vision.
Γιώργος Κωνσταντινίδης, οικονομολόγος, Ph.D., συγγραφέας του βιβλίου "Συσσώρευση Κεφαλαίου και Παγκοσμιοποίηση στην Τουρκία Διαχρονικά", εκδόσεις Παπαζήση.
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