La finale de Poutine en Syrie
MIKE WHITNEY
Last week, Russian warplanes intruded into Turkish airspace twice. Both incidents caused consternation in Ankara and send Turkish leaders into a furor. On both occasions, officials in Moscow politely apologized for the incursions claiming they were unintentional (“navigational errors”) and that they would try to avoid similar intrusions in the future.
Then there was a third incident, a more serious incident, that was not a mistake. It was clearly intended to send a message to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Here’s a short summary of what happened from an article at the World Socialist Web Site:
“Turkish officials claimed a third incident on Monday, when an unidentified MiG-29 fighter jet locked its radar for four and a half minutes on eight Turkish F-16 jets that were on patrol on their side of the border, in apparent preparation to open fire.” (“US, NATO step up threats to Russia over Syria“, World Socialist Web Site)
This was no mistake. The only time a fighter pilot adopts these protocols is when he plans to take down an enemy plane. This was a message, and while it might have been over-the-heads of the politicians and the media but, I assure you, every general in the Turkish High-Command knows what’s it means. This is a wake-up call. Moscow is indicating that there’s a new sheriff in town and that Turkey had better behave itself or there’s going to be trouble. There’s not going to be any US-Turkey no-fly zone over North Syria, there’s not going to be any aerial attacks on Syrian sites from the Turkish side of the border, and there certainly is not going to be any ground invasion of Turkish troops into Syria. The Russian Aerospace Defence Forces now control the skies over Syria and they are determined to defend Syria’s sovereign borders. That’s the message. Period.
This is a good example of how “preemption” can actually prevent conflicts rather than starting them. By firing a shot over Turkey’s bow, Moscow has dampened Erdogan’s plan to annex part of N. Syria and declare it a “safe zone”. Turkey will have to scrap that plan now realizing that any attempt to seize-and-hold Syrian territory will trigger a swift and powerful Russian retaliation. Seen in this light, Russia’s incursion looks like an extremely effective way to prevent a broader war by simply telegraphing to potential adversaries what they can and can’t do. Simply put: Putin has rewritten the rules of the game in Syria and Erdogan had better comply or else. Here’s more on Turkey from Patrick Cockburn in The Independent:
“A Turkish ground invasion into Syria, though still a possibility, would now be riskier with Russian aircraft operating in areas where Turkey would be most likely to launch an incursion.
The danger for the Turks is that they now have two Kurdish quasi-states, one in Syria and one in Iraq, immediately to the south. Worse, the Syrian-Kurdish one…is run by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) which is effectively the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which has been fighting the Turkish state since 1984. Any insurgency by the PKK in Kurdish areas in south-east Turkey in future will be strengthened by the fact that the PKK has a de facto state of its own.
It appears that Turkey’s four-year attempt to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad has failed. It is unclear what Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can do about this since support from Nato is at this stage purely rhetorical. As for Turkey’s relations with Russia, Mr Erdogan says that any attack on Turkey is an attack on Nato and that “if Russia loses a friend like Turkey with whom it has co-operated on many issues, it will lose a lot.” But in Syria, at least, it appears that it is Turkey that is the loser.” (“Russia in Syria: Russian Radar Locks on to Turkish Fighter Jets“, The Unz Review)
Poor Erdogan. He rolled the dice and came up snake-eyes. He figured he could expand his would-be Ottoman Empire into Northern Syria, and now his dream is in a shambles. Should he deploy his warplanes to N Syria and openly challenge the Russian airforce? No, he’s not that foolish. He’s going to stay on his side of the border, stomp his feet, and lash out at “evil Putin”, but at the end of the day, he’ll do nothing.
And Washington’s not going to do anything either. Yes, Hillary and McCain have been calling for a no-fly zone over Syria, but that’s not going to happen. Putin won’t allow it and neither will the Security Council. And, on what pretext anyway? Is Obama really going to request a no-fly zone on the basis that Putin is killing “moderate” terrorists along with the “extreme” terrorists? That’s not a very compelling argument, in fact, even the American people are having a hard time swallowing that one. If Obama wants something from Putin, he’s going to have sit-down at a bargaining table and hash out a deal. So far, he has refused to do that, because he still thinks regime change is within his grasp. There are signs of this everywhere like this article in Turkey’s Today’s Zaman titled “İncirlik base to increase capacity by 2,250 to accommodate new personnel”:
“A tent city within İncirlik has been undergoing reconstruction for modern prefabricated houses, which will host 2,250 US military personnel, the Doğan news agency reported on Friday. During the Gulf War of 1991, a tent city was established to accommodate military personnel serving with Operation Provide Comfort (OPC) and was shut down with the end of the OPC.
On Aug. 20, work began to transform the site of the tent city into a new area named “Patriot Town.” After construction is completed, the İncirlik base will have the largest capacity among the US bases in Europe…
The expansion of the İncirlik base’s capacity comes at a time when Russia has launched the biggest intervention in the Middle East in decades….Moscow’s intervention means the conflict in Syria has been transformed from a proxy war.. into an international conflict in which the world’s main military powers… are directly involved in fighting.” (“İncirlik base to increase capacity by 2,250 to accommodate new personnel“, Today’s Zaman)
This article smacks of US ambitions in the Middle East. As readers can plainly see, Washington is gearing up for another war just like it did in 1991. And the US air war is going to be launched from “Patriot Town” at Incirlik just like we’ve been predicting since July when the deal was finalized. Here’s more background from an article at Hurriyet:
“U.S. Air Force Central Command has started deploying search and rescue helicopters and airmen at Turkey’s southeastern Diyarbakır Air Base in order to help with recovery operations in neighboring Iraq and Syria, it has announced….
NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe and the commander of U.S. European Command, Gen. Phillip Breedlove, has said the mission will be temporary.
“We will be guests of the government of Turkey at Diyarbakir Air Base. There are no plans for a permanent U.S. presence at this location … This marks yet another successful cooperative effort between the Turkish and U.S. militaries,” Breedlove said.” (“US deploys recovery aircraft in Turkey’s southeast“, Hurriyet)
“US Search and rescue helicopters” just a couple miles from Turkey’s southeastern border?
Yep. In other words, if an F-16 is shot down somewhere over Syria while trying to impose an illegal no-fly zone, then– Presto– the search and rescue helicopters are just 20 minutes away.
How convenient.
So you can see that– even though Putin has thrown a wrench in the works– the Obama team is still moving ahead with its “Topple Assad” plan. Nothing has changed, the Russian intervention just makes the future much more uncertain which is why frustrated geopolitical strategists, like Zbigniew Brzezinski, have begun to pop-up in the op-ed pages of leading newspapers blasting Putin for sabotaging their plans for regional hegemony. It’s worth noting that Brzezinski is the spiritual godfather of Islamic extremism, the man who figured out how religious nutcases could be used to foment hysteria and advance US geopolitical objectives around the world. Thus, it’s only natural that Brzezinski would want to offer his advice now in a desperate effort to avoid a legacy of failure and disgrace. Check out this clip from Politico:
“The United States should threaten to retaliate if Russia does not stop attacking U.S. assets in Syria, former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote in a Financial Times op-ed published Sunday, urging “strategic boldness,” with American credibility in the Middle East and the region itself at stake….And if Russia continues to pursue non-ISIL targets, the U.S. should retaliate, he added.
“In these rapidly unfolding circumstances the U.S. has only one real option if it is to protect its wider stakes in the region: to convey to Moscow the demand that it cease and desist from military actions that directly affect American assets,” he said.” (“Brzezinski: Obama should retaliate if Russia doesn’t stop attacking U.S. assets“, Politico)
The people who Brzezinski breezily refers to as “American assets” in Syria are terrorists. It’s that simple. Putin doesn’t distinguish between the “moderate” terrorists and the “radical” terrorists, the good terrorists and the bad terrorists. It’s a joke. They’re all in the same pool and they’re all going to meet the same fate. They all have to be rooted out, apprehended or killed. End of story.
By tweaking the war on terror narrative in a way that supports some, but condemns others, the Obama administration has backed themselves into an ideological cul de sac from which there is no way out. What they are doing is wrong and they know it is wrong. And that’s why it’s going to be so difficult to make the case for war. In a recent “must see” interview, Putin called out Obama on this very point. Here’s what he said:
“President Obama frequently mentions the threat of ISIS. Well, who on earth armed them? And who created the political climate that facilitated the current situation? Who delivered arms to the area? Do you really not know who is fighting in Syria? They’re mercenaries mostly. They are paid money. Mercenaries work for whatever side pays more. We even know how much they are paid. We know they fight for awhile and then see that someone else pays a little more, so they go there…..
The US says “We must support the civilized, democratic opposition in Syria”. So they support them, arm them, and then they join ISIS. Is it impossible for the US to think one step ahead? We do not support this kind of policy at all. We think it’s wrong.” (Putin explains who started ISIS, you tube, 1:38 to 4:03)
See? Everyone knows what’s going on. Barack Obama is not going to initiate a confrontation with Russia to defend a fundamentally immoral CIA program that has gone south. He will, however, do what the US always does when dealing with an adversary that can actually defend itself. He’s going to hector, harass, threaten, demean, demonize, ridicule, and bully. He might launch another attack on the ruble, or fiddle with oil prices or impose more economic sanctions. But he’s not going to start a war with Russia, that’s just not going to happen.
But don’t give up hope just yet, after all, there is a silver lining to this fiasco, and all of the main players know exactly what it is.
It’s called Geneva. Geneva is the endgame.
Geneva is the UN-backed road map for ending the war in Syria. Its provisions allow for the “establishment of a transitional governing body”, the “participation of all groups… in a meaningful national dialogue,” and “free and fair multi-party elections.”
The treaty is straightforward and uncontroversial. The one sticking point, is whether Assad will be allowed to participate in the transitional government or not.
Putin says “Yes”. Obama says “No”.
Putin is going to win this battle. Eventually, the administration will cave in and withdraw their demand that Assad step down. Their plans for regime change through the use of jihadi-proxies will have failed, and Putin will have moved the Middle East one step closer to a lasting peace and genuine security.
That’s the silver lining and that’s how the war in Syria will end.
Bravo, Putin.
MIKE WHITNEY lives in Washington state. He is a contributor to Hopeless: Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion (AK Press). Hopeless is also available in a Kindle edition. He can be reached at fergiewhitney@msn.com.
More articles by:MIKE WHITNEY
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/10/09/putins-endgame-in-syria/
Russia doesn’t want to fight a war with Turkey, so Russian generals devised a simple, but effective plan to discourage Turkey from taking any action that could lead to a clash between the two nations.
Last week, Russian warplanes intruded into Turkish airspace twice. Both incidents caused consternation in Ankara and send Turkish leaders into a furor. On both occasions, officials in Moscow politely apologized for the incursions claiming they were unintentional (“navigational errors”) and that they would try to avoid similar intrusions in the future.
Then there was a third incident, a more serious incident, that was not a mistake. It was clearly intended to send a message to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Here’s a short summary of what happened from an article at the World Socialist Web Site:
“Turkish officials claimed a third incident on Monday, when an unidentified MiG-29 fighter jet locked its radar for four and a half minutes on eight Turkish F-16 jets that were on patrol on their side of the border, in apparent preparation to open fire.” (“US, NATO step up threats to Russia over Syria“, World Socialist Web Site)
This was no mistake. The only time a fighter pilot adopts these protocols is when he plans to take down an enemy plane. This was a message, and while it might have been over-the-heads of the politicians and the media but, I assure you, every general in the Turkish High-Command knows what’s it means. This is a wake-up call. Moscow is indicating that there’s a new sheriff in town and that Turkey had better behave itself or there’s going to be trouble. There’s not going to be any US-Turkey no-fly zone over North Syria, there’s not going to be any aerial attacks on Syrian sites from the Turkish side of the border, and there certainly is not going to be any ground invasion of Turkish troops into Syria. The Russian Aerospace Defence Forces now control the skies over Syria and they are determined to defend Syria’s sovereign borders. That’s the message. Period.
This is a good example of how “preemption” can actually prevent conflicts rather than starting them. By firing a shot over Turkey’s bow, Moscow has dampened Erdogan’s plan to annex part of N. Syria and declare it a “safe zone”. Turkey will have to scrap that plan now realizing that any attempt to seize-and-hold Syrian territory will trigger a swift and powerful Russian retaliation. Seen in this light, Russia’s incursion looks like an extremely effective way to prevent a broader war by simply telegraphing to potential adversaries what they can and can’t do. Simply put: Putin has rewritten the rules of the game in Syria and Erdogan had better comply or else. Here’s more on Turkey from Patrick Cockburn in The Independent:
“A Turkish ground invasion into Syria, though still a possibility, would now be riskier with Russian aircraft operating in areas where Turkey would be most likely to launch an incursion.
The danger for the Turks is that they now have two Kurdish quasi-states, one in Syria and one in Iraq, immediately to the south. Worse, the Syrian-Kurdish one…is run by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) which is effectively the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which has been fighting the Turkish state since 1984. Any insurgency by the PKK in Kurdish areas in south-east Turkey in future will be strengthened by the fact that the PKK has a de facto state of its own.
It appears that Turkey’s four-year attempt to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad has failed. It is unclear what Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can do about this since support from Nato is at this stage purely rhetorical. As for Turkey’s relations with Russia, Mr Erdogan says that any attack on Turkey is an attack on Nato and that “if Russia loses a friend like Turkey with whom it has co-operated on many issues, it will lose a lot.” But in Syria, at least, it appears that it is Turkey that is the loser.” (“Russia in Syria: Russian Radar Locks on to Turkish Fighter Jets“, The Unz Review)
Poor Erdogan. He rolled the dice and came up snake-eyes. He figured he could expand his would-be Ottoman Empire into Northern Syria, and now his dream is in a shambles. Should he deploy his warplanes to N Syria and openly challenge the Russian airforce? No, he’s not that foolish. He’s going to stay on his side of the border, stomp his feet, and lash out at “evil Putin”, but at the end of the day, he’ll do nothing.
And Washington’s not going to do anything either. Yes, Hillary and McCain have been calling for a no-fly zone over Syria, but that’s not going to happen. Putin won’t allow it and neither will the Security Council. And, on what pretext anyway? Is Obama really going to request a no-fly zone on the basis that Putin is killing “moderate” terrorists along with the “extreme” terrorists? That’s not a very compelling argument, in fact, even the American people are having a hard time swallowing that one. If Obama wants something from Putin, he’s going to have sit-down at a bargaining table and hash out a deal. So far, he has refused to do that, because he still thinks regime change is within his grasp. There are signs of this everywhere like this article in Turkey’s Today’s Zaman titled “İncirlik base to increase capacity by 2,250 to accommodate new personnel”:
“A tent city within İncirlik has been undergoing reconstruction for modern prefabricated houses, which will host 2,250 US military personnel, the Doğan news agency reported on Friday. During the Gulf War of 1991, a tent city was established to accommodate military personnel serving with Operation Provide Comfort (OPC) and was shut down with the end of the OPC.
On Aug. 20, work began to transform the site of the tent city into a new area named “Patriot Town.” After construction is completed, the İncirlik base will have the largest capacity among the US bases in Europe…
The expansion of the İncirlik base’s capacity comes at a time when Russia has launched the biggest intervention in the Middle East in decades….Moscow’s intervention means the conflict in Syria has been transformed from a proxy war.. into an international conflict in which the world’s main military powers… are directly involved in fighting.” (“İncirlik base to increase capacity by 2,250 to accommodate new personnel“, Today’s Zaman)
This article smacks of US ambitions in the Middle East. As readers can plainly see, Washington is gearing up for another war just like it did in 1991. And the US air war is going to be launched from “Patriot Town” at Incirlik just like we’ve been predicting since July when the deal was finalized. Here’s more background from an article at Hurriyet:
“U.S. Air Force Central Command has started deploying search and rescue helicopters and airmen at Turkey’s southeastern Diyarbakır Air Base in order to help with recovery operations in neighboring Iraq and Syria, it has announced….
NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe and the commander of U.S. European Command, Gen. Phillip Breedlove, has said the mission will be temporary.
“We will be guests of the government of Turkey at Diyarbakir Air Base. There are no plans for a permanent U.S. presence at this location … This marks yet another successful cooperative effort between the Turkish and U.S. militaries,” Breedlove said.” (“US deploys recovery aircraft in Turkey’s southeast“, Hurriyet)
“US Search and rescue helicopters” just a couple miles from Turkey’s southeastern border?
Yep. In other words, if an F-16 is shot down somewhere over Syria while trying to impose an illegal no-fly zone, then– Presto– the search and rescue helicopters are just 20 minutes away.
How convenient.
So you can see that– even though Putin has thrown a wrench in the works– the Obama team is still moving ahead with its “Topple Assad” plan. Nothing has changed, the Russian intervention just makes the future much more uncertain which is why frustrated geopolitical strategists, like Zbigniew Brzezinski, have begun to pop-up in the op-ed pages of leading newspapers blasting Putin for sabotaging their plans for regional hegemony. It’s worth noting that Brzezinski is the spiritual godfather of Islamic extremism, the man who figured out how religious nutcases could be used to foment hysteria and advance US geopolitical objectives around the world. Thus, it’s only natural that Brzezinski would want to offer his advice now in a desperate effort to avoid a legacy of failure and disgrace. Check out this clip from Politico:
“The United States should threaten to retaliate if Russia does not stop attacking U.S. assets in Syria, former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote in a Financial Times op-ed published Sunday, urging “strategic boldness,” with American credibility in the Middle East and the region itself at stake….And if Russia continues to pursue non-ISIL targets, the U.S. should retaliate, he added.
“In these rapidly unfolding circumstances the U.S. has only one real option if it is to protect its wider stakes in the region: to convey to Moscow the demand that it cease and desist from military actions that directly affect American assets,” he said.” (“Brzezinski: Obama should retaliate if Russia doesn’t stop attacking U.S. assets“, Politico)
The people who Brzezinski breezily refers to as “American assets” in Syria are terrorists. It’s that simple. Putin doesn’t distinguish between the “moderate” terrorists and the “radical” terrorists, the good terrorists and the bad terrorists. It’s a joke. They’re all in the same pool and they’re all going to meet the same fate. They all have to be rooted out, apprehended or killed. End of story.
By tweaking the war on terror narrative in a way that supports some, but condemns others, the Obama administration has backed themselves into an ideological cul de sac from which there is no way out. What they are doing is wrong and they know it is wrong. And that’s why it’s going to be so difficult to make the case for war. In a recent “must see” interview, Putin called out Obama on this very point. Here’s what he said:
“President Obama frequently mentions the threat of ISIS. Well, who on earth armed them? And who created the political climate that facilitated the current situation? Who delivered arms to the area? Do you really not know who is fighting in Syria? They’re mercenaries mostly. They are paid money. Mercenaries work for whatever side pays more. We even know how much they are paid. We know they fight for awhile and then see that someone else pays a little more, so they go there…..
The US says “We must support the civilized, democratic opposition in Syria”. So they support them, arm them, and then they join ISIS. Is it impossible for the US to think one step ahead? We do not support this kind of policy at all. We think it’s wrong.” (Putin explains who started ISIS, you tube, 1:38 to 4:03)
See? Everyone knows what’s going on. Barack Obama is not going to initiate a confrontation with Russia to defend a fundamentally immoral CIA program that has gone south. He will, however, do what the US always does when dealing with an adversary that can actually defend itself. He’s going to hector, harass, threaten, demean, demonize, ridicule, and bully. He might launch another attack on the ruble, or fiddle with oil prices or impose more economic sanctions. But he’s not going to start a war with Russia, that’s just not going to happen.
But don’t give up hope just yet, after all, there is a silver lining to this fiasco, and all of the main players know exactly what it is.
It’s called Geneva. Geneva is the endgame.
Geneva is the UN-backed road map for ending the war in Syria. Its provisions allow for the “establishment of a transitional governing body”, the “participation of all groups… in a meaningful national dialogue,” and “free and fair multi-party elections.”
The treaty is straightforward and uncontroversial. The one sticking point, is whether Assad will be allowed to participate in the transitional government or not.
Putin says “Yes”. Obama says “No”.
Putin is going to win this battle. Eventually, the administration will cave in and withdraw their demand that Assad step down. Their plans for regime change through the use of jihadi-proxies will have failed, and Putin will have moved the Middle East one step closer to a lasting peace and genuine security.
That’s the silver lining and that’s how the war in Syria will end.
Bravo, Putin.
MIKE WHITNEY lives in Washington state. He is a contributor to Hopeless: Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion (AK Press). Hopeless is also available in a Kindle edition. He can be reached at fergiewhitney@msn.com.
More articles by:MIKE WHITNEY
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/10/09/putins-endgame-in-syria/
La finale de Poutine en Syrie
La Russie ne veut pas faire la guerre à la Turquie, donc les généraux russes ont conçu un plan simple mais efficace pour la décourager d’entreprendre toute action qui pourrait conduire à un affrontement entre les deux pays.
La semaine dernière, des avions militaires russes ont pénétré deux fois l’espace aérien turc. Les deux incidents ont provoqué la consternation à Ankara et mis les dirigeants turcs en fureur. Dans les deux occasions, des officiels à Moscou se sont poliment excusés pour les incursions, affirmant qu’elles n’étaient pas intentionnelles (des erreurs de navigation) et qu’ils essaieraient d’éviter de telles intrusions à l’avenir.
Puis il y a eu un troisième incident, plus sérieux, qui n’était pas dû à une erreur. Il visait clairement à envoyer un message au président turc Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Voici un bref résumé de ce qui s’est passé, à partir d’un article du World Socialist Web Site:
Les officiels ont annoncé un troisième incident lundi, lorsqu’un avion de chasse MiG-29 non identifié a verrouillé son radar pendant quatre minutes et demie sur huit F-16 turcs qui patrouillaient de leur côté de la frontière, se préparant apparemment à ouvrir le feu. (US, NATO step up threats to Russia over Syria, World Socialist Web Site)
Ce n’était pas une erreur. Le seul cas où un pilote de chasse adopte ces protocoles est lorsqu’il projette d’abattre un avion ennemi. C’était un message, et bien qu’il ait pu passer au-dessus de la tête des politiciens et des médias, je vous assure que tous les généraux du haut-commandement turc savent ce qu’il signifie. C’est un coup de semonce. Moscou indique qu’il y a un nouveau shérif en ville et que la Turquie devrait mieux se comporter sinon il y aura des problèmes. Il n’y aura aucune zone d’exclusion aérienne américano-turque sur le nord de la Syrie, il n’y aura pas d’attaques aériennes sur les sites syriens à partir du côté turc de la frontière, il n’y aura certainement pas d’invasion terrestre par des troupes turques en Syrie. Les Forces de défense aérienne russes contrôlent maintenant le ciel au-dessus de la Syrie et elles sont déterminées à défendre les frontières souveraines de la Syrie. Voilà le message. Un point c’est tout !
C’est un bon exemple de la manière dont la préemption peut effectivement prévenir des conflits plutôt que les commencer. En tirant un coup de semonce à la Turquie, Moscou a freiné le plan de Erdogan d’annexer une partie de la Syrie du Nord et de la déclarer zone de sécurité. La Turquie devra dorénavant abandonner ce plan, et réaliser que toute tentative de s’emparer d’un territoire syrien déclenchera une riposte russe immédiate et puissante. Vue sous cet angle, l’incursion de la Russie paraît une manière extrêmement efficace de prévenir une guerre plus vaste en transmettant simplement à de potentiels adversaires ce qu’ils peuvent et ne peuvent pas faire. Dit simplement : Poutine a réécrit les règles du jeu en Syrie et Erdogan a dû s’y conformer ou sinon… Ci-dessous, davantage sur la Turquie, par Patrick Cockburn dans The Independent :
Une invasion turque de la Syrie, bien qu’elle reste une possibilité, serait aujourd’hui plus risquée avec l’aviation russe opérant dans des zones où la Turquie serait la plus susceptible de lancer une incursion.Le danger pour les Turcs est qu’ils ont maintenant deux quasi-États kurdes, l’un en Syrie et l’autre en Irak, immédiatement au sud. Pire, l’État kurde syrien… est dirigé par le Parti de l’union démocratique (PYD dans son sigle anglais), qui est effectivement la branche syrienne du Parti des travailleurs kurdes (PKK), celui qui a combattu l’État turc depuis 1984. Toute insurrection lancée à l’avenir par le PKK dans les zones kurdes du sud-est de la Turquie sera renforcée par le fait que ce parti a de facto son propre État.Il semble que la tentative de la Turquie, qui dure depuis quatre ans, de renverser le président Bachar al-Assad a échoué. On ne voit pas ce que le président Recep Tayyip Erdogan peut faire à ce propos, puisque le soutien de l’Otan est purement rhétorique à ce stade. Quant aux relations de la Turquie avec la Russie, M. Erdogan dit que toute attaque à ce pays est une attaque à l’Otan et que «si la Russie perd un ami tel que la Turquie, avec laquelle elle a coopéré sur de nombreuses questions, elle perdra beaucoup». Mais en Syrie, au moins, il semble que c’est la Turquie la perdante. (Russia in Syria: Russian Radar Locks on to Turkish Fighter Jets, The Unz Review)
Pauvre Erdogan. Il a lancé les dés et il a joué de malchance. Il se figurait qu’il pourrait étendre son Empire ottoman potentiel à la Syrie du Nord, et maintenant son rêve est en miettes. Doit-il envoyer ses avions en Syrie du Nord et affronter ouvertement l’armée de l’air russe ? Non, il n’est pas si téméraire. Il va rester de son côté de la frontière, taper du pied et se mettre en colère contre le méchant Poutine, mais au bout du compte, il ne fera rien.
Et Washington ne va rien faire non plus. Oui, Hillary et McCain ont appelé à une zone d’exclusion aérienne au-dessus de la Syrie, mais cela ne se fera pas. Poutine ne le permettra pas, le Conseil de sécurité non plus. D’ailleurs, sous quel prétexte, de toute façon ? Obama va-t-il réellement demander une zone d’exclusion aérienne sur la base du fait que Poutine tue des terroristes modérés en même temps que des terroristes extrémistes ? Ce n’est pas un argument très convaincant. En fait, même les Américains ont du mal à avaler celui-là. Si Obama veut quelque chose de Poutine, il devra s’asseoir à la table des négociations et discuter d’un accord. Jusqu’ici, il a refusé de le faire, parce qu’il continue à penser que le changement de régime est à sa portée. Il y a des signes de cela partout, comme dans cet article du journal turc Today’s Zaman intitulé İncirlik base to increase capacity by 2,250 to accommodate new personnel [La base d’Icirlik augmente sa capacité de 2 250 places pour accueillir du nouveau personnel] :
Une ville de tentes dans Incirlik a été reconstruite en maisons préfabriquées modernes, qui accueillera 2 250 membres du personnel militaire US, a rapporté l’agence de presse Doğan vendredi. Pendant la guerre du Golfe de 1991, une ville de tentes avait été installée pour accueillir du personnel militaire servant dans l’Operation Provide Comfort (OPC) [opération militaire des USA, du Royaume-Uni, de la France, de l’Australie, des Pays-Bas et de la Turquie visant à livrer de l’aide humanitaire aux réfugiés kurdes fuyant l’Irak, NdT] et avait été fermée à la fin de cette opération.Le 20 août, le travail de transformation du site de la ville de tentes en une nouvelle zone appelée Patriot Town [Patrioteville] a commencé. Lorsque la construction sera achevée, la base de Incirlik sera celle qui aura la plus grande capacité parmi les bases états-uniennes en Europe. […]L’augmentation de la capacité de la base d’Incirlik intervient au moment où la Russie a lancé la plus grande intervention au Moyen-Orient depuis des décennies. […] L’intervention de Moscou signifie que le conflit en Syrie s’est transformé, passant d’une guerre par procuration […] à un conflit international dans lequel les principales puissances mondiales […] sont directement impliquées dans le combat. ()
Cet article révèle les ambitions des États-Unis au Moyen-Orient. Comme les lecteurs peuvent parfaitement le voir, Washington fourbit ses armes pour une autre guerre, exactement comme il l’a fait en 1991. Et la guerre aérienne états-unienne sera lancée depuis Patriot Town à Incirlik, exactement comme nous l’avons prédit depuis juillet lorsque l’accord a été conclu. Ci-dessous, quelques éléments supplémentaires tirés d’un article de Hurriyet :
Le commandement central de l’armée de l’air US a commencé à déployer des hélicoptères de recherche et de sauvetage à la base aérienne de Diyarbakır, en Turquie du sud-est, dans le but d’aider à des opérations de récupération en Irak voisin et en Syrie, a-t-il annoncé. […]Le Commandant suprême des forces alliées de l’Otan en Europe et le chef du Commandement des forces des États-Unis en Europe, le général Phillip Breedlove, a dit que cette mission serait temporaire. (US deploys recovery aircraft in Turkey’s southeast, Hurriyet)
Des hélicoptères états-uniens de recherche et de sauvetage à quelques kilomètres seulement de la frontière sud-est de la Turquie ?
Eh oui. Dit autrement, si un F-16, en train d’essayer d’imposer une zone d’exclusion aérienne illégale, est abattu quelque part au-dessus de la Syrie alors – presto – les hélicoptères de recherche et de sauvetage ne sont qu’à 20 minutes.
Comme c’est pratique.
Donc vous pouvez voir – même si Poutine a mis des bâtons dans les roues de ce projet – que l’équipe d’Obama continue à aller de l’avant avec son plan renverser Assad. Rien n’a changé, l’intervention russe rend seulement l’avenir plus incertain, ce qui explique pourquoi des stratèges géopolitiques frustrés, comme Zbigniew Brzezinski, ont commencé à apparaître dans les pages Opinions des journaux dominants, attaquant Poutine avec virulence pour avoir saboté leurs plans d’hégémonie régionale. Il vaut la peine de noter que Brzezinski est le parrain spirituel de l’extrémisme islamique, l’homme qui a compris comment les cinglés religieux pourraient être utilisés pour pousser à l’hystérie et faire avancer les objectifs géopolitiques des États-Unis dans le monde. Par conséquent, il est tout naturel que Brzezinski veuille offrir ses conseils maintenant, dans un effort désespéré pour éviter un héritage d’échec et de honte. Découvrez ce clip de Politico :
Les États-Unis devraient menacer la Russie de représailles si elle ne cesse pas d’attaquer les ressources états-uniennes en Syrie, a écrit l’ancien conseiller à la Sécurité nationale Zbigniew Brzezinski dans une chronique publiée dimanche dans le Financial Times, appelant à l’«audace stratégique», la crédibilité américaine au Moyen-Orient et la région elle-même étant en jeu. […] Et si la Russie continue à viser des cibles qui ne sont pas EI, les États-Unis pourraient riposter, a-t-il ajouté. (Brzezinski: Obama should retaliate if Russia doesn’t stop attacking U.S. assets, Politico)
Les gens que Brzezinski désigne avec désinvolture comme des ressources américaines en Syrie sont des terroristes. Poutine ne distingue pas entre les terroristes modérés et les terroristes radicaux, les bons terroristes et les mauvais. C’est une plaisanterie. Ils sont tous du même tonneau et ils vont tous avoir le même sort. Tous doivent être extirpés, arrêtés ou tués. Fin de l’histoire.
En peaufinant le narratif de la guerre contre le terrorisme d’une manière qui soutient certains mais en condamne d’autres, l’administration Obama s’est acculée elle-même dans une impasse idéologique sans issue. Ce qu’ils font est mauvais et ce qu’ils savent est faux. Et c’est pourquoi il sera si difficile de faire la guerre. Dans une interview incontournable récente, Poutine a interpellé Obama sur ce point précis. Voici ce qu’il a dit :
Le président Obama mentionne fréquemment la menace d’ISIS. Eh bien, qui sur la terre les a armés ? Et qui a créé le climat politique qui a favorisé la situation actuelle ? Qui a livré des armes à la région ? Ne savez-vous vraiment pas qui combat en Syrie ? Ce sont pour la plupart des mercenaires. Ils sont payés en argent. Les mercenaires travaillent pour le camp qui paie le plus. Nous savons même combien ils sont payés. Nous savons qu’ils combattent pendant un certain temps et puis ils voient que quelqu’un d’autre paie un peu plus, alors ils y vont. […]Les États-Unis disent : «Nous devons soutenir l’opposition civilisée, démocratique, en Syrie.» Donc ils les soutiennent, les arment, et ensuite ils rejoignent ISIS. Est-ce impossible pour les États-Unis d’anticiper un peu? Nous ne soutenons pas du tout cette sorte de politique. Nous pensons qu’elle est mauvaise.» (Putin explains who started ISIS, YouTube, 1:38 to 4:03)
Vous voyez ? Tout le monde sait ce qu’il se passe. Barack Obama ne va pas entamer une confrontation avec la Russie pour défendre un programme fondamentalement immoral de la CIA qui a mal tourné. Il fera toutefois ce que les États-Unis font toujours lorsqu’ils traitent avec un adversaire qui peut vraiment se défendre. Ils terrorisent, harcèlent, menacent, humilient, diabolisent, ridiculisent et brutalisent. Ils pourraient lancer une autre attaque sur le rouble ou truquer les prix du pétrole ou imposer davantage de sanctions économiques. Mais ils n’entreront pas en guerre avec la Russie, cela n’arrivera tout simplement pas.
Mais n’abandonnez pas encore tout espoir, après tout, il y a un côté positif à ce fiasco, et tous les joueurs principaux savent exactement ce que c’est.
Il s’appelle Genève. Genève est la finale.
Genève est la feuille de route soutenue par l’ONU pour mettre fin à la guerre en Syrie. Ses dispositions permettent «l’établissement d’un organe gouvernemental de transition», «la participation de tous les groupes […] à un dialogue national significatif» et «des élections multipartites libres et équitables».
Le traité est simple et ne suscite pas de controverses. Le seul point d’achoppement porte sur la question de savoir si Assad sera autorisé à participer au gouvernement de transition ou non.
Poutine dit oui. Obama dit non.
Poutine va gagner cette bataille. Finalement, l’administration cédera et retirera sa demande que Assad quitte ses fonctions. Le plan de changement de régime par le recours à des mercenaires djihadistes aura échoué, et Poutine aura rapproché le Moyen-Orient d’une paix durable et d’une sécurité véritable.
Voilà le point positif et c’est ainsi que la guerre en Syrie prendra fin.
Bravo, Poutine.
Mike Withney
Traduit par Diane, relu par jj pour le Saker Francophone
Source CounterPunch
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