The problem of Greece is that public expenditure is higher than tax revenues, and the government cannot finance the gap in the markets. So the Greeks have four options.
1. Raise taxes. The population seems to be against that, with the property tax being particularly unpopular. The man on the Athens omnibus might well be in favour of raising taxes on the rich, or on companies, but it does not seem as if this strategy will be pursued with sufficient vigour, or will raise enough money.
2. Cut public spending. Public-sector workers are against that option.
3. Borrow money from their EU neighbours. The neighbours are willing to hand over the money but only on condition of further austerity. This the Greeks also dislike.
4. Default outright. The result will probably be even more painful austerity. Cut off from the financial markets, the Greeks will have to balance the budget overnight. They may also need to rescue their banks, a capital-intensive process. Leaving the euro might also involve a rescue of the corporate sector, which would find its revenues in (devalued) drachma and its debts in euros.
Although there is a risk that voters will reject option 3, it may be that politicians will use fear of option 4 to pull opinion around. If the Greeks designed their own menu, one would guess that it would be for the EU to lend them money, without imposing the austerity conditions. But the Germans have to satisfy their own voters; democracy cuts both ways.
Economist
Prime Minister of Greece, President of PASOK and President of the Socialist International, Georgios Papandreou informed members of his party on Monday, 31 October 2011, that he would call a referendum on the economic bailout plan.
ΑπάντησηΔιαγραφήOn Tuesday, 1 November, he convened the Government Council for Foreign Affairs and Defense (KYSEA). Then, he suddenly dismissed the Chief of the National Defense General Staff (Air Force General Ioannis Giagos), the Chief of the Army General Staff (Lt. General Frangoulis Frangos), the Chief of the Navy General Staff (Vice Admiral Dimitris Elefsiniotis) and the Chief of the Air Force General Staff (Deputy General the Air Force Vassilis Klokozas) - all of whom he went on to replace.
The bone of contention between the Government and the Armed Forces is remains a mystery, considering that Mr. Papandreou and the Joint Chiefs of Staff worked together on the implementation of all the successive austerity plans.
Each international aid plan has coincided with useless and expensive weapons ordered by the Greek army from Germany, France or the United States. Greece’s military budget per taxpayer is almost double that of the other Euro area countries.
The last emergency rescue plan adopted in October by the members of the euro area and the IMF co-occurred with an order for 400 U.S. M1 Abrams tanks and 20 amphibians AA7VA1. This follows a pattern similar to the one witnessed in 2003 when European subsidies for the modernization of Polish agriculture were diverted to buy U.S.-made F-16’s for deployment in the Pentagon’s Iraqi adventure.
It should be noted that the sale of the F-16’s to Poland had been brokered by a U.S. law firm headed by Christine Lagarde, who has since been appointed IMF Managing Director and who, in this capacity and for the current contract, has become the benefactress of both the Greek General Staff and the US military industry.
"With Christine Lagarde, US Corporations Enter the French Government”, Voltaire Network, 29 June 2005.