Will America accept its defeat or will it challenge the russian bear and the chinese dragon? (1/3)

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Published here: https://www.alraimedia.com/Home/Details?id=c2abe3a8-77b4-4cd9-aabf-25e709f53240 via @alraimediagroup
Damascus – from Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai
Following the liberation of  eastern Ghouta from the jihadists,  and their departure to the northern city of Idlib under al-Qaeda and Turkish control, the city of Duma is now engaged in negotiations with the Russian side to find a way out for the militants of the  “Army of Islam” (Jaish al-Islam). These militants fought against many jihadists and rebels and have therefore no remaining friends in the Syrian arena. However, this negotiation  has become a tactical detail because the capital, Damascus, has become safe and is no longer exposed to daily shelling as was the case before the liberation of Ghouta.
What next?

The Yarmouk Camp and al-Hajar al-Aswad:
The elimination of the “Islamic State” group (ISIS) and the remnants of al-Qaeda in the Yarmouk camp and the nearby area of al-Hajar al-Aswad, south of Damascus, is also a tactical detail because there is no way out for these militants, trapped on all sides : the liberation of the area is not an issue.
The Syrian Steppe (al-Badiya):
In the Syrian steppes (al-Badiya), ISIS has still a pocket that the Syrian army is expecting to deal with this summer. This area is also totally besieged, ISIS can go nowhere and, while waiting, its willpower and morale are deteriorating and reaching a minimum level.
Idlib and al-Qaeda:
As for the city of Idlib where the various opposition and jihadist forces are multiplying, the latter remain in a permanent power struggle that eats at each other. They will not be able to manage the presence of different nationalities and creeds opposing each other in one city. Therefore, the role of Turkey will be crucial in manoeuvring control in this area and prevent infighting among jihadists or even eliminate those unwilling to submit to Ankara’s policy.
The Turkish occupation forces:
The Turkish presence in the north-west and north-central has become inevitable. A long term but very slow and inconsistent battle is expected between the Turkish and Syrian states. It is natural in the circumstances to expect a threat and counter-threat by both governments.
If Damascus decides to opt for war against Turkey, it must deal with this issue without counting on its allies. Neither Russia nor Iran want a military confrontation with the Turkish army.Syria has the right to demand the restoration of its territory through diplomatic means first and then put pressure on Ankara through its allies and friends. The use of military force as a solution could then be adopted by Damascus as a final attempt to regain its territory in extremis.
Russia may be tempted to intervene diplomatically and find a solution between Damascus and Ankara if indeed Moscow’s aim is that it expects its forces to co-exist with the Syrian Army in a peaceful Syria.
US occupation forces in Deir-Ezzour and al-Hasaka:
US forces remain in the north-east (almost 24% of the total Syrian territories under the US army’s control), with a large ISIS pocket protected by Washington at the present time “for undeclared reasons and objectives”. ISIS is deployed on the  Syrian-Iraqi borders and conducts a « normal life » as they show in propaganda media adverts. Moreover, ISIS militants carry out insurgency attacks against the Syrian and the Iraqi Armies from both sides of the borders they are very familiar with.
It is most unlikely for the US forces to leave anytime soon unless forced to by insurgency attacks. They would want to avoid major casualties if and when the environment in which they exist becomes hostile.
Washington has proved it is capable of bearing losses, in Iraq. It remained despite the loss of about 4,500 troops and officers. As the ex-US Secretary of State James Baker said: ”America will go to war in the Middle East if necessary to control energy sources.”
Indeed, in Syria, there are energy resources (oil and gas) under US control which amount to about 13 percent of the total Syrian stock. In addition, the US presence makes it easier for Israel to use a US established airport in north-east Syria as a hub on the Syrian-Iraqi border.
The United States can also reshuffle the situation in Iraq, Syria and Turkey to threaten all these countries with a possible “Kurdish state” since the local Kurds are those protecting and acting like US proxies. Even though, it is an unlikely scenario and the Kurds are expected to be abandoned by the US forces at a certain point and left to their destiny sometime in the future.
However, the US goals in occupied Syrian territory go against all the bordering countries and this may influence the duration of the US presence. There is no doubt that the US occupation of Syrian territory is very disturbing to the anti-American axis and is considered as a “poisonous thorn” in the Levant.
On the other hand, the existence of ISIS has also become a small detail because it is besieged. It can move freely within the American enclave but cautiously toward its enemies: the Syrian and Iraqi armies. Therefore, it does not have any strategic horizon, especially since the Islamist card failed to change the Iraqi and the Syrian regimes. The “creative chaos” installed by the American establishment under the title of “The New Middle East” has also failed in its hoped for effect.
Daraa and Quneitra:
This does not mean Syria is liberated and that the control of the Syrian state extends over the entire Syrian territory. But there is an important battle coming up in the south of Syria in the Daraa and Quneitra provinces.
Why is this battle important, and more important than the pocket of ISIS in Yarmouk or the Syrian Steppe, or even more important than the city of Idlib, where Al Qaeda and other groups have gathered in the past two years?
The big dilemma remains for the two southern provinces: Daraa and Quneitra. These two provinces are on the border with Israel in the de-escalation zone agreed between the US, Jordan and the Russian.
But Damascus insists on liberating it with or without Russia’s approval. The Syrian government would also like to liberate that area which is under al-Qaeda, the rebels plus the one in the control of pro-ISIS militants of “Jaish Khaled bin Walid” .
And of course, as soon as we talk about the Syrian army liberating an al-Qaeda controlled territory, we can as usual expect an avalanche of accusations by the international media where the area will be portrayed as « lived in exclusively by over half a million civilians all defending their homes. »
This manipulation of and by the media has been going on since the battles for Qusseyr, Qalamoun, Aleppo, Madaya and finally the battle of Ghouta. Washington has instructed the CIA, the Pentagon and the US State Department to use civilian tools with Non Governmental Organisations to raise human rights concern only against those countries who have rejected US dominance. This has been the case since the first day Russia set foot in Syria in September 2015, when it was undermined until the situation of the ground turned in favour of the Syrian government, and this is when serious criticism and attacks began against Russia and against Damascus’s allies in Syria.
For these particular reasons, Daraa must be the priority for the Syrian government to solve. It must initiate the negotiation to clear all militants willing to be dumped in Idlib – the « trash bin » destination where all jihadists are sent to from all the liberated areas of Syria.
The US has lost the « extremist battle »- they were incapable of achieving the “regime change” objective in Syria. That was the awakening of the Russian bear from its long hibernation who realised how the US was trying to corner it. Moscow also relied on the Chinese dragon, which shares Russia’s goals to eliminate all extremists and jihadist terrorists in Syria.
Both Russia and China are now working closely to put an end to the uni-polar superpower and thus end US world dominance.
Proof read by: Maurice Brasher

Veteran War Zone Correspondent and Senior Political Risk Analyst with over 35 years' experience covering the Middle East and acquiring in-depth experience, robust contacts and political knowledge in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan and Syria. Specialised in terrorism and counter-terrorism, intelligence, political assessments, strategic planning and thorough insight in political networks in the region. Covered on the ground the Israeli invasion to Lebanon (1st war 1982), the Iraq-Iran war, the Lebanese civil war, the Gulf war (1991), the war in the former Yugoslavia (1992-1996), the US invasion to Iraq (2003 to date), the second war in Lebanon (2006), the war in Libya and Syria (2011 to date). Lived for many years in Lebanon, Bosnia, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria. 


7 σχόλια:

  1. Εξαιρετικό κείμενο, ίσως από τα καλύτερα που έχουν δημοσιευτεί.

    Σε τρείς ενότητες περιγράφει το Βατερλώ της Αμερικάνικης πολιτικής να διαλύσει την Συρία, και την ουσιαστική επιστροφή της Ρωσσίας πλέον ως καταλυτικού παράγοντα στην Μέση Ανατολή.

    No more room for the USA in Middle East.

    1. Στα σχόλια του ιδίου άρθρου υπάρχει όμως ένας απειλητικός αντίλογος που δεν απαντήθηκε από τον συγγραφέα:

      PAUL 28/03/2018 at 11:13 pm
      Sheesh. One can cut and slice, frame and reframe the situation but it comes down to this: Russia has left Assad pretty much where he was. On the surface the Syrian government controls more territory than it did when Russia entered the fray. But this is a devastated country, loaded with a desperate population, with no secure borders (the guerrilla war will continue unabated or even more furiously), no real air cover , no real air power, its borders and resources dominated by others, in particular, the US. In other words, Assad is doomed and the Syrian government is doomed. The US is totally immovable. Turkey is basically in the same situation. There is no hope of pushing Israel back. Syria will be lucky if the US doesn’t just take the whole country. Russia has made it clear that it cares for the sovereignty of Syria only verbally. In three years of war, Putin has accomplished nothing, beyond marketing weapons systems and gaining a bit of illusory clout for Russia. Just to get started rebuilding would require that Syria have access to all its resources, real peace ensured by real sovereignty and a LOT of help from outside without lots of strings attached. The proxy war is no longer a proxy war, as Lavrov pointed out. Now the countries behind the war have stepped forward and the feeding frenzy has begun. I believe Assad will eventually die in The Hague.

    2. και αυτο:https://southfront.org/trump-us-will-withdraw-from-syria-very-soon/

    3. @ elias cavadas
      Τα μικρά γράμματα της δήλωσης Τραμπ άλλα λένε όμως: > When asked about Trump’s announcement, US State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said that the department has no information on a US withdrawal from Syria.< και τα της Ρωσίδας Ζαχάροβα > “We are still concerned about reports that the United States and its allies are consolidating their illegal military presence in the territory of sovereign Syria. In particular, heavy military equipment is arriving to the zone established by the United States around the settlements of al-Tanf in the southeast of the country,”<

    4. Xε,χε,χε!!!Ο Τραμπας θαχει Μεγα διδασκαλο του τον Τσιπρας φαινεται...
      Ή μπορει και το αντιστροφο...

    5. Το λογικο παντως ειναι να μεινουν.

  2. *I believe Assad will eventually die in The Hague* In other words adios Tartus. Not even Spielberg could write such a blockbuster scenario.


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