U.S. recognition of Armenian genocide in Turkey may strengthen ties between Ankara and Moscow

After the U.S. Congress' Foreign Affairs Committee passed last week a draft resolution recognizing the Armenian genocide carried out by Turkish authorities early in the 20th century, Ankara recalled its ambassador from Washington for consultations and announced it could find another energy partner: Russia.

The U.S. Congress had already considered similar resolutions in 1974 and 1985, but did not adopt them. In 2007, the House Foreign Affairs Committee approved the draft resolution. At that time, as now, Ankara lodged a strong protest and recalled its ambassador. President George W. Bush had a difficult time persuading the Congressmen not to vote. This time matters are complicated by the fact that during his election campaign Barack Obama promised to recognize the Armenian genocide and many now expect him to be a man of his word.

The United States historically has a strong Armenian lobby. Its only rival is the Jewish lobby, but following a cooling of relations between Israel and Turkey, their active support for Ankara declined. Washington is also concerned that Turkey's policies are too independent and that it has strengthened its relations with Iran. When, in February of this year, the U.S. proposed that it deploy an anti-missile radar system on Turkish soil, Ankara diplomatically declined, saying it first needed to secure support of the other NATO countries. Nor are the Turks in a hurry to ratify the protocol on the normalization of relations with Armenia, although the U.S. has long urged them to do so.

Meanwhile, Ankara has hinted that it could easily find another energy partner, such as Russia, for example. Sources in the Turkish government say that Turkey "is prepared to open its doors to renewed cooperation with Russia on this issue" if the U.S. persists on the genocide issue.

However, Congress is unlikely to pass a resolution on the Armenian genocide: there is too much at stake. Turkey supports U.S. operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, and Washington is not only interested in the continuation of this cooperation, but also in strengthening it. Equally important is the U.S. base in Incirlik, which is essential for many U.S. air force operations. In addition, Turkey is strategically placed on oil and gas routes from the Middle East and the Caspian region to Western countries.

Rossiiskaya Gazeta, Izvestia

Ukrainian president to maneuver between Europe and Russia - analysts

The new Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych visited Moscow late last week but his future policy remains a mystery. During his meeting with top Russian leaders Yanukovych mentioned a "new page" in bilateral relations. But the page remains blank.

Alexander Rahr, Director of the Russia and CIS Programs at the German Council on Foreign Policy, says Russia had expected Ukraine to renounce its plans for NATO membership. There was also hope that energy giant Gazprom would be invited to join a new gas consortium and that Kiev would agree to extend the stay of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol after 2017.

"There is still hope that Ukraine will join the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space in the mid-term," Rahr believes.

"Russia expected Kiev to confirm all gas agreements signed with Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. They stipulate that Ukraine is to buy gas at market prices, which is profitable for Russia," the analyst writes.

Ukraine hoped to receive cheap gas and trade preferences. Although Ukraine is a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Kiev is unable to sell many of its products on European markets.

Kiev hopes that Russia will not diversify gas transits in circumvention of Ukraine. Yanukovych realizes that he can no longer delay construction of the Nordic Stream gas pipeline, which is to link Russia and Germany via the Baltic Sea, and is going to try to delay the South Stream project, a proposed gas pipeline to transport Russian natural gas to Bulgaria via the Black Sea and further to Italy and Austria. His efforts will be directed at making sure that the biggest share of gas being transported to Europe goes via Ukraine.

Ukraine had extremely pragmatic expectations with regard to Russia, which hoped to resume political reintegration processes with Kiev. Notably, the Ukrainian president visited Brussels before coming to Moscow. The entire Western world welcomed him in Brussels because Ukraine remains an important country which it cannot afford to lose, the analyst writes.

One should expect Yanukovych to implement a policy that would be most beneficial for Ukraine: He is most likely to maneuver between Europe and Russia. Neither Europe, nor Russia has anything to offer Ukraine at the moment to make it contemplate unbalanced cooperation with either party. Yanukovych will try to maintain good relations with everyone, the analyst writes in conclusion.
RBC Daily, Gazeta

Nabucco's future depends on Turkmenistan

The European Commission has approved a 2.3-billion euro economic stimulus program with the largest-ever package of grants for energy infrastructure, including 200 million euros for the Nabucco pipeline project to bring gas from the Caspian Sea to the European Union.

The 2,000-mile pipeline, with an estimated total cost of 8 billion euros ($10.8 billion), should help reduce the EU's reliance on natural gas from Russia. However, allocations have been suspended until the final investment decision is taken on the project.

Nabucco's future now depends on Turkmenistan. If it fails to come to an agreement with the EU within six months, the EU will spend the money on other energy projects.

In spring 2008, Turkmenistan signed a memorandum on the annual delivery of 100 billion cubic meters (3.53 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas to Europe. The European Parliament made unprecedented political concessions by ratifying a trade agreement with Turkmenistan despite the country's deplorable record in human rights. However, that effort has not moved the Nabucco project forward.

The absence of any agreement on the Caspian Sea delimitation between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan hinders the Trans-Caspian pipeline project, which would supply Turkmen gas to Nabucco. Turkmenistan's Caspian coast is only 200 km (124 miles) away from Azerbaijan's gas transportation system, which is connected to Turkey by the South Caucasus pipeline. But Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan remain unable to solve their territorial dispute.

Turkmenistan is ready to deliver gas to Europe via Iran or Russia bypassing Azerbaijan, according to a government source. One possible route is a new pipeline from the Dovletabad field to Iran with a throughput capacity of 12 billion tons per year (241.64 million bpd). But the United States is unlikely to support this idea; its desire to isolate Iran has in fact deprived Nabucco of much needed gas resources.

The Nabucco project is also suffering from internal problems. For example, Azerbaijan, unable to come to an agreement with Turkey on gas supply and transit terms, has declared its willingness to export its gas to Russia and Iran.

Azerbaijani officials are openly skeptical about Nabucco, and Bulgarian politicians support their view. The project organizers' hope of getting gas from Azerbaijan or Iraq has so far not been formalized. In short, Nabucco still has no resource base.

Last Thursday, the Turkish parliament approved a bill on the construction of the Nabucco pipeline, but the same day the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee passed a nonbinding resolution calling the World War I-era killing of Armenians genocide.


MOSCOW, March 9 (RIA Novosti)